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ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue of $16.91M and GAAP EPS of $-0.29; EPS beat consensus, revenue missed; non-GAAP adjusted net loss per share was $-0.25 . Revenue consensus was $19.01M*, EPS consensus was $-0.41*; actual revenue missed while EPS beat (S&P Global) .
  • ZYNLONTA net product sales were $16.39M in Q4 and $69.28M for FY2024; brand reached commercial profitability in 2024 .
  • Clinical catalysts: LOTIS-5 enrollment completed (Dec 2024); data update expected late 2025; LOTIS-7 initial data showed 94% ORR and 72% CR; subset data expected Q2 2025 and fuller update in H2 2025 .
  • Cash runway extended into the second half of 2026; $250.9M cash at 12/31/24 provides financing visibility through major milestones .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We reached commercial brand profitability with ZYNLONTA…Sales of $69.3 million were in line with the prior year despite the growth of bispecifics” .
  • LOTIS-7 early efficacy is compelling: best ORR 94% and CR 72% with no high-grade CRS/ICANS; supports best-in-class combo potential with glofitamab .
  • Operating discipline: non-GAAP operating expenses down 15% YoY in Q4 and 13% for FY; cash runway extended into H2 2026 via 2024 equity financing .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 revenue ($16.91M) missed Street consensus ($19.01M*), reflecting lower sales volume offset by price .
  • Revenue trajectory pressured by competitive bispecific uptake; management cites third-line market now ~1/3 bispecifics, keeping ZYNLONTA run-rate in the $16–$18M/quarter range .
  • Continued GAAP losses: Q4 net loss $30.7M and FY net loss $157.8M, driven by interest expense and R&D; EBITDA margin remained deeply negative .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$17.41 $18.46 $16.91
GAAP EPS ($USD)$-0.38 $-0.42 $-0.29
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP) ($USD)$-0.25 $-0.28 $-0.25
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$-28.72*$-35.23*$-32.10*
EBITDA Margin (%)-164.9%*-190.8%*-189.8%*

Values with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment revenue breakdown:

Revenue Component ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Product revenues, net$17.03 $18.02 $16.39
License revenues and royalties$0.38 $0.45 $0.52
Total revenue, net$17.41 $18.46 $16.91

Operating KPIs:

KPI ($USD Millions unless noted)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash and cash equivalents$300.12 $274.27 $250.87
Total operating expense$46.45 $54.03 $49.35
Adjusted total operating expenses$44.46 $51.22 $46.57
Net loss$36.54 $43.97 $30.73

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash runwayCompany-level“Mid-2026” “Second half of 2026” Raised/extended
LOTIS-5 enrollmentTrial milestone“Expected by year-end 2024” “Completed in Dec 2024” Achieved
LOTIS-5 data updateTiming“Late 2025” “Before end of 2025 (upon PFS events)” Maintained
LOTIS-7 updatesTiming“Interim Dec 2024; H1 2025 additional” “94% ORR/72% CR disclosed; subset Q2 2025; fuller H2 2025” Enhanced detail, timeline maintained
Indolent lymphomas IITStrategy“Updates at ASH; pursue compendia” “ASH presented; Lancet Haematology publication; plan regulator engagement & compendia” Advanced evidence base
Solid tumorsPortfolio“Discontinue ADCT-601; prioritize exatecan” “AACR oral (Claudin-6); posters (PSMA, ASCT2)” Maintained; new disclosures

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
ZYNLONTA commercial run-rate & competitionBispecifics gaining; quarter-to-quarter ordering variability; pricing low single-digit increases Third-line market ~1/3 bispecifics; ZYNLONTA steady $16–$18M per quarter despite competition Stable run-rate; competitive pressure persists
LOTIS-5 (Lonca+R)Passed futility; enrollment near completion; head-to-head vs R-GemOx with PFS primary endpoint Enrollment completed; data late 2025; safety run-in ORR 80%, CR 50% Milestone achieved; confidence maintained
LOTIS-7 (Lonca+glofit)Dose escalation complete; interim update planned; aim to reduce CRS Initial data: ORR 94%, CR 72%; no high-grade CRS/ICANS; subset Q2 2025; full H2 2025 Positive efficacy/safety; progressing to expansion
Indolent lymphomas IIT (FL, MZL)Strong early signals; plan compendia and regulatory discussion ASH updates; Lancet Haematology publication; planning compendia and regulator engagement Evidence base strengthening
Solid tumor pipelineFocus on exatecan; ADCT-601 to update and later discontinued AACR oral/poster presentations; claims of differentiated TI and no ILD preclinically Refocused; differentiation messaging continues
Financial disciplineNon-GAAP OpEx down YoY; cash runway into mid-2026 Non-GAAP OpEx down 15% in Q4; runway into H2 2026 Improved efficiency & extended runway

Management Commentary

  • “We are confident in the path ahead…we reached commercial brand profitability with ZYNLONTA…maintain our position in the highly competitive third line plus DLBCL space.” — CEO Ameet Mallik .
  • “Adjusted net loss was $26.5 million…non-GAAP operating expenses decreased versus prior year by 15%…ending the year with $251 million in cash and cash equivalents.” — CFO Jose (Pepe) Carmona .
  • “We believe ZYNLONTA plus glofitamab has the potential to be the preferred bispecific combination in the second line plus DLBCL…with a manageable safety profile and off-the-shelf dosing.” — CEO Ameet Mallik .

Q&A Highlights

  • Regulatory/Compendia path (LOTIS-7, indolent lymphomas): Plan to engage regulators in H2 2025; ~100 patients at selected dose could support compendia submission; indolent lymphomas peak opportunity $100–$200M .
  • LOTIS-5 efficacy benchmarks: Differentiation targeted with CR >40% vs non-CAR-T/non-bispecific regimens; powered to show ~2-month PFS advantage vs R-GemOx (control ~3.6 months in recent data) .
  • Market dynamics: Bispecifics ~1/3 of 3L+ market; ZYNLONTA steady $16–$18M per quarter; ADCETRIS+R² impact expected limited and mainly replacing older regimens .
  • AACR solid tumor program: Exatecan platform aims for high therapeutic index, potency, and no ILD seen preclinically; new data forthcoming .

Estimates Context

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)18.80*18.50*19.01*
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)17.41 18.46 16.91
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-0.457*-0.395*-0.412*
GAAP EPS Actual ($USD)-0.38 -0.42 -0.29
Primary EPS - # of Estimates7*6*6*
Revenue - # of Estimates7*6*6*
  • Q4 2024: EPS beat (actual -$0.29 vs -$0.41*), revenue miss (actual $16.91M vs $19.01M*) .
  • Q3 2024: EPS slightly missed (actual -$0.42 vs -$0.39*); revenue in line (actual $18.46M vs $18.50M*) .
  • Q2 2024: EPS beat (actual -$0.38 vs -$0.46*); revenue miss (actual $17.41M vs $18.80M*) .

Values with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term catalysts: LOTIS-7 subset data in Q2 2025 and fuller update in H2 2025; LOTIS-5 PFS-driven topline by late 2025; these can re-rate the equity depending on efficacy/safety durability .
  • Commercial base resilient despite bispecific competition; expect continued $16–$18M quarterly ZYNLONTA sales barring significant competitive shifts .
  • The Street may revise EPS upward and revenue downward near term given Q4 beat/miss pattern; watch consensus revisions and compendia outcomes (S&P Global) .
  • Extended runway into H2 2026 de-risks funding through pivotal milestones; interest expense and royalty obligation accretion remain key drags to GAAP profitability .
  • Regulatory/compendia strategy across LOTIS-7 and indolent lymphomas could accelerate adoption; ~100-patient datasets at selected dose have precedent for guideline inclusion .
  • Solid tumor exatecan ADC program presents optionality; AACR presentations may be a sentiment catalyst but clinical validation remains ahead .
  • Trading lens: Expect event-driven volatility around data updates; positioning ahead of Q2 LOTIS-7 subset disclosure may be rewarded if safety/CRS advantages persist while maintaining high CR rates .

Additional Data and Sources

  • Q4 2024 Press Release and 8-K: financials, operational updates, non-GAAP reconciliations .
  • Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript: strategy, financial discipline, commercialization, Q&A .
  • Prior quarters: Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 8-K press releases and transcripts for trend analysis –.
  • LOTIS-5 enrollment completion PR (Dec 30, 2024) and LOTIS-7 initial data PR (Dec 11, 2024) .

Values with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.